Mixed feelings…
David R. Kotok, Cumberland Advisors, Inc.
Source: Global Interdependence Center
There’ a lot going on. But let me start out with David Kotok’s remarks (with a copy here) which I picked up from John Mauldin’s mail. I recommend subscribing to both mail newsletters –they’re free and their advice is sound and most of all thought provoking.
Kotok argues that globalization allows us to determine one set of global real interest rates for the different maturities (3 mo, 1 yr, 2, 5, 10, 30 yrs). I’m sure he’s singling out the developed countries (US, UK, EC and Japan) in his determination of the global rate, because they do carry most of the debt weights; as for the rest, in order to determine their real rates, we would have to add each country’s risk rate.